Surrogate models for the blade element momentum aerodynamic model using non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansions

Abstract. In typical industrial practice based on IEC standards, wind turbine simulations are computed in the time domain for each mean speed bin using a few unsteady seeds. Software such as FAST, BLADED, or HAWC2 can be used to capture unsteadiness and uncertainties of simulations. The statistics these aeroelastic simulation outputs extracted calculate fatigue extreme loads components. minimum requirement having six seeds does not guarantee an accurate estimation overall statistics. One solution might running more seeds; however, this will increase computation cost. Moreover, move beyond blade element momentum (BEM)-based tools toward vortex/potential flow formulations, reduction computational cost associated with uncertainty handling is required. This study illustrates aerodynamic statistics' stationary character standard turbulence models. shown output National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) 5MW reference machine BEM Afterwards, we propose non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) build surrogate model loads' statistics, rotor thrust, torque, at step, estimate accurately efficiently.